bV1sion provides an exclusive overview of the social casino market, including market GGR forecasts, regional split and growth rates, as well as the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown with bV1sion now forecasting upside to 2020 growth expectations
The first quarter of the year has been dominated by the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak. This drove an acceleration of growth towards the end of the quarter and into early Q2, although there remains risk of a slowdown towards the end of the year if there is a significant economic downturn.
Global GGR forecasts (see Chart 1 below)
We forecast the global social casino market to grow by 6.4% in 2020, although the current run-rate is significantly ahead of this, and there is upside risk to our 2020 GGR forecast of $5.7bn.
However, given the potential for a slowdown towards the end of the year as the lockdown leads to a macro-economic slowdown, our full year forecasts remain unchanged at this moment in time.
Regional GGR split (Chart 2)
With the US by far the largest individual market, North America continues to drive the lion’s share of global revenues, representing 71% of the entire market.
While forecast to grow at a slower rate than other regions, its scale means that it continues to generate the highest growth of any region in dollar terms each year.
GGR growth by region (Chart 3)
Africa has the highest growth rate of 13% year-on-year, but this is being driven from a very low base. Therefore Asia arguably has the greatest growth opportunity outside of the US.
Although the Covid-19 outbreak has seen social casino growth generally accelerate across the board, China has seen a particularly pronounced uptick, although this is likely due to the length and severity of the lockdown in the region.
Covid-19 impact (Chart 4)
Analysis of industry growth rates shows a marked increase in GGR growth in March, which then accelerated into April.
Across March as a whole, year-on-year GGR growth accelerated by c.8% compared to that seen in February, and in April this had increased to 43% incremental GGR growth versus the start of 2020.
By contrast, downloads appear to have peaked, with the big increase in downloads occurring in March when the lockdowns started in many regions.
In terms of the components of the GGR growth, analysis of data from Mobile Action shows an increase in users, compounded by an increase in user rate, with daily active users (DAUs) increasing at a faster rate than users.
This has been compounded further by an increase in average spend, with growth in daily average revenue per user (DARPU) growth also accelerating.
For 2020 as a whole, bV1sion forecasts an increase in daily average users (DAUs) of 0.9% after years of consecutive declines, and this number is likely to be revised up further if the lockdown continues.
While DARPU will continue to be the main driver of GGR growth (bV1ision forecasts DARPU growth in 2020 of 5.4%), the increase in DAUs – in part driven by an increase in the total user base – is a welcome positive for the industry.
About bV1sion
bV1sion is the social casino industry’s leading market intelligence and data provide
bV1sion has a partnership with H2 Gambling Capital, which has a track record of 15 years focused on the global gambling industry; its projections have been influential in shaping legislators’ and investors’ views of the gambling sector across the globe. bV1sion also has a media partnership with iGaming Business. For further information on bv1sion’s data and research please contact: sales@bv1sion.com
