The early indications are that the Conservative Party will be relentless in trying to win over voters this year. They’ve certainly made a strong start to 2014, as Max Liu explains, and the opposition appear to have little to offer in response…
Because they were unbeatable during the 1980s, I’ve always thought of the Conservatives as the Liverpool FC of British politics. I now realise, however, that the Tories have more in common with Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United. The reason is that you should never write them off. Even with a 179-seat majority, when the Tories were in the doldrums of William Hague’s leadership, Labour were borrowing power. Back then, Michael Hestletine told his party to make Ken Clarke leader or face 1000 years in opposition but he was bluffing. The Conservatives are better at attracting voters than any other party and, when you see them trading at 4.3 for a majority at the next general election, it’s worth putting your money on them.
Look how they’ve bounced back in recent weeks. David Cameron is busy again, snapping all over the place like Phil Neville on holding-midfielder duty, making statements on issues big (the economy), medium-sized (fracking) and small (casino slot machines). One day George Osborne tries to dictate policy to Europe, the next he calls for an above-inflation minimum wage increase. While watching this week’s Question Time, I even caught myself thinking plastic party chairman Grant Shapps sounded reasonable when he talked about lifting people out of the benefits trap. Is it just January blues or do the Tories look formidable?
They’ve hit the ground running in 2014. Conservatives have traditionally argued that minimum wage laws stifle business and John Major opposed their introduction when he was PM. The paradox is that the centre-right’s acceptance of the minimum wage, and the need to raise it, is an ideological victory for the left which makes their electoral defeat more likely. It stops Labour from owning the cost of living debate. Conservatives can point to economic growth, falling inflation and argue that their policies are improving people’s everyday lives.
I’ll discuss Labour in a fortnight but the opposition appear to have been caught unawares and pollsshow the gap between the two main parties narrowing. Diane Abbott is correct when she says of Osborne’s minimum wage u-turn: “It means the Tories are deadly serious about winning the election.” Parties usually are serious about winning elections but Abbot is saying that the Tories are prepared to offer policies for every level of society in a bid to banish the idea that they’re the party of the elite. While No Overall Majority is still the likeliest outcome next year, these moves might get them over the line. They’re certainly more convincing than Ed Miliband’s mangled appeal to the middle-class.
The only politicians who are hampering Cameron’s current momentum are Tory backbenchers who persist in hectoring him about Europe. This week, 95 Conservative MPs wrote to the PM, urging him to introduce reform which would allow parliament to veto EU laws. It’s important to remember, then, that while the Tories remain the party that can’t be written off, they’re also experts at destroying their electoral chances from within. The current odds on a Conservative majority are, however, generous.
In America, meanwhile, Chris Christie could learn a few things about boucebackabiity from Cameron. Couple of months ago, I discussed his chances of winning the Republican nomination for the 2016 presidential election. I wasn’t convinced then and, following the Bridge-gate scandal, I’m even less confident about Christie’s appeal. This week, as he was being mocked by his idol, the odds on Christie’s nomination drifted from 5.4 to 7.0. As that other Garden State boss, Tony Soprano, used to say: “You make your choices.” Christie is unlikely to be the Republicans’.
source : www.betfair.com
